Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A warm front will bring precipitation and rising freezing levels to the South Coast on Tuesday. 20-30mm of precipitation is expected for Tuesday with freezing levels reaching between 1600 and 2000m (highest in the south of the region) and alpine winds strong from the SW. On Wednesday, light precipitation is expected to continue (3-6mm) with freezing levels dropping to around 1000m and winds easing to light in the alpine. Christmas day looks to be mostly sunny with freezing levels around 800m and light NW wind in the alpine.

Reports from Sunday of explosive control producing storm slabs size 1-2.  On Saturday, reports of natural storm slab activity up to size 2 at treeline and in the alpine.  Ski cutting and explosive control also produced numerous storm slab avalanches, some of which stepped down to an old crust layer in the middle of the snowpack.  The deepest slab released was reported to be around 1m thick.  I expect with new storm loading on Tuesday, we will see new storm slab activity throughout the region.

The weekend storm slab is typically 40-50 cm thick and sits above the mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar layer. This layer extends at least up to treeline and possibly lower parts of the alpine. Strong winds over the weekend created wind slabs which may still be a concern and upcoming strong winds will create new wind slabs which will likely be touchy. The November 28th rain crust may still be exposed in some areas due to the stripping effect of the strong Southwest winds, or it may be deeply buried down 100-150 cm from wind loading, or anywhere in between in sheltered areas. The new storm brought some snow to below treeline terrain, but it still looks like only the upper part of this elevation band has enough snow for avalanches.