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Summary
Confidence
Good
Weather Forecast
A dry ridge of high pressure will bring mainly clear skies for Tuesday. On Wednesday the ridge will flatten-out allowing for a weak pacific system to bring light snowfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Ridgetop winds are forecast to be light from the northwest on Tuesday, and then become strong and southwesterly with Wednesday's system. Freezing levels will shoot to about 3500m on Tuesday, and then drop to about 1500m on Wednesday and Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
With continued warming, loose wet avalanches and cornice failures will remain the primary concern, particularly on steeper, sun-exposed slopes.
Snowpack Summary
Light amounts of cold, lower density snow overlie a thick hard crust on high, north-facing terrain. Below about 2000m there is no snow on the crust and surface runnels show the effect of recent rain showers. Sun-exposed slopes have become moist, or wet with recent daytime warming and solar radiation, while cornices are reported to be large and potentially fragile. Below the surface crust, the snow is still moist; however, the mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-consolidated. Most of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.
Problems
Loose Wet
Freezing levels may climb as high as 3500m on Tuesday. The warm temperatures, combined with solar radiation, will increase the chances of loose wet avalanches. Watch for increased reactivity in steep, sun-exposed terrain.
Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Large cornices will become weaker with forecast warming and solar radiation. Use extra caution around ridge crests
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 17th, 2015 2:00PM
