Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 4th, 2015 7:57AM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
Howling winds and heavy precipitation means that it's probably best to avoid avalanche terrain Thursday.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
The first of three distinct waves of well organized warm precipitation accompanied by strong SW winds should impact the coast before dawn Thursday. The rain/snow line should start the day around 1000m, steadily rising to 2200m by Thursday afternoon as precipitation intensity increases throughout the day. The second wave should arrive in the wee hours of Friday morning, with the freezing level hovering around 2300m. The final wave is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon. Storm totals in mm of water are expected to be in the 80 - 140 range.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday skiers intentionally initiated a few small slabs on small steep features. Activity on both Sunday and Monday was limited to ski-cutting and explosives induced thin soft slabs which were running on the firm crust layer. These were limited to size 1 and were isolated to wind affected terrain. Sluffing from steep terrain features was also reported.
Snowpack Summary
10 to 30cm of new snow overlies a hard rain crust that exists up to at least 2100m. In exposed terrain, the new accumulations have been shifted by strong SW winds into wind slabs which may be especially reactive due to the underlying crust. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Avalanche activity is expected to be widespread at and above treeline Thursday. Screaming winds with a dynamic cool to very warm and wet storm suggests that avoidance is likely the best mitigation strategy for the day.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches running on the thick crust may run further than you think.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 5th, 2015 2:00PM
