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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2014–Jan 12th, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

The recent storm is loading an unusually thin snowpack above a week layer near the ground. The "wait 48 hours and you're good" Coastal mantra does not apply right now as these conditions are likely to persist for some

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tonight and Sunday: Snow tapering off tonight, scattered flurries Sunday / Winds moderate to strong westerly / Freezing level 800mMonday: Isolated flurries / Winds moderate to strong westerly / Freezing rising through the day up to 2000mTuesday: Cloudy / Winds moderate to strong southwesterly / Freezing continue to ri8se as high as 2500m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity was report to have intensified Friday although these avalanche were a result of developing to storm slabs. Earlier in the week a deep slab avalanche was triggered by a snow cat at Whistler Blackcomb. This avalanche highlights the potential for large and deep avalanches in many areas on the South Coast. As heavy loading continues through the day expect more large deep avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Saturday's storm clobbered the region with another 60-80 cm of snow accompanied by strong winds (Whistler Blackcomb recorded gusts at ridge top up to 170km/h). A total of 60-80 cm of new snow has fallen in the last few days and may overlie surface hoar in sheltered terrain.  The unrelenting southwest winds have formed large and touchy wind slabs in the alpine and at treeline.The cold temperatures of early December left persistent weak faceted crystals that seem to be variably reactive. At higher elevations where the snowpack was deeper, the facets likely co-exist with a crust in the mid pack. At lower elevations or in shallow, rocky areas of the alpine, the facets are most likely more widespread and may exist down near the ground. Either way, the "wait 48 hours and you're good" Coastal mantra does not apply as these conditions are likely to persist for some time.Early season riding hazards such as rocks, stumps and logs are lurking below the surface in many areas, especially at lower elevations. In glaciated terrain open and poorly bridged crevasses are everywhere.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall through the last 48 hours and intense winds have created widespread storm slabs at all elevations. Sustained strong winds will continue drive avalanche hazard loading lee features far down slope. Make conservative terrain choices.
Avoid areas with overhead hazard.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Saturday's storm loading was the first big "shock" for weak sugar snow which formed during December's cold snap. Where this weakness exists, there is potential for very large and destructive avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5