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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2017–Feb 15th, 2017
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

We're moving into a period of HIGH danger with rapid loading of the snowpack on Wednesday and Thursday: rain to treeline and heavy snow in the alpine.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Warm and wet on Wednesday - Thursday. Cooling with light preciptation on Friday. WEDNESDAY: Rain to treeline (30-40mm) ; wet heavy snow in the alpine (30-40cm) / Strong southerly winds becoming moderate / Freezing level around 1900m / High temperatures to +2 Celsius. THURSDAY: Wet snow (20-40cm) / Moderate southeasterly winds / Freezing level around 1800 m. FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries / High temperatures to +1 Celsius / Light-moderate southerly winds / Freezing level around 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose wet avalanches to Size 3 were seen on steep solar aspects on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

The recent warming and sunny conditions gave us a widespread sun crust on all but high northerly (and some westerly) aspects, where there is still some cold snow to be found. 40-80 cm of storm snow fell last week with moderate to strong southerly winds - this formed variable wind slabs on northerly aspects. Changing temperatures during the storm made the slab problem worse and created layers that are still giving sudden results down 30, 40, and 60cms in snowpack tests. The new snow has buried a wide variety of old snow surfaces including stiff wind slab or wind affected snow at upper elevations, sun crust on steep southerly slopes, surface hoar (up to 10 mm) in sheltered locations.In sheltered ares where the recent storm snow is overlying surface hoar (weak, feathery crystals), you may see increased reactivity on this layer as the storm snow begins to settle into a more cohesive slab. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled (strong). However, there remain a number of facet and crust layers (down 60-80cm in shallower areas) that are currently dormant but will require monitoring with additional loading (and warming this week), especially in the shallow, rocky areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Where precipitation falls as snow, watch out for storm slabs, especially on wind-loaded northerly features.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.Avoid areas with overhead hazard.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Heavy rain at treeline and below will cause the snow to become soft and cohesionless. Avoid getting pushed into terrain features like gullies and cliffs, where even small slides could have large consequences.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3