Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud is expected on Wednesday with moderate alpine wind from the west and treeline temperatures around -12C. The next storm system is expected to arrive Wednesday night with models currently showing 5-15 cm of snowfall by the end of day on Thursday. Alpine wind is forecast to become strong from the southwest and freezing levels are forecast to rise as high as 2000 m. Light snowfall is forecast to continue on Friday with strong alpine wind from the southwest.

On Monday, several natural storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were observed. Explosives and skiers also triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2. These recent avalanches have had a typical slab thickness of 30-60 cm. On Sunday, natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 3 were observed on all aspects and elevations above around 1500 m. The recent storm snow is expected to remain touchy on Wednesday, especially where it has been redistributed by the wind. Buried surface hoar, facets, and/or a sun crust underneath the new snow may increase the reactivity and propagation propensity of these storm slabs. If the sun comes out in full force, solar triggered avalanches are possible on south facing slopes.

60-80cm of storm snow has accumulated over the weekend. Strong shifting winds have redistributed the new snow in exposed terrain forming touchy wind slabs. The new snow overlies a highly variable old surface which may include wind affected surfaces, a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas, facets, and/or a thin sun crust. Recent reports suggest a poor bond between the new snow and the old surface. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and stable but isolated basal weaknesses may exist in shallow snowpack areas.