Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

A weak storm is expected to start on Saturday evening and persist into Sunday bringing only light amounts to this region. Current models are showing around 5 cm from 4pm Saturday to 4am Sunday with another 2 cm or so on Sunday. Freezing levels are expected to be around 1600 m on Saturday and then rise to around 1800 m on Sunday. Winds are expected to be around 60 km/h from the southwest overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Monday looks mostly dry with northwest winds and freezing levels around 1500 m. By late Tuesday, the pattern should change again as another pacific system tracks across the south of the province bringing light to moderate snowfall and elevated freezing levels.

Size 1 storm slabs were triggered by explosives and ski cutting on Friday. With weather forecast for Saturday night, further avalanche activity of this nature is expected.

Surface hoar has grown on top of 10-20 cm loose dry snow that has been sluffing readily on a thick hard supportive rain crust that extends into alpine elevations. In the alpine, winds have been conducive to blowing this low density snow into thin wind slabs in exposed lee areas. At treeline and below, the near surface crust is effectively bridging triggers from penetrating to deeper persistent weaknesses that formed earlier in the season. However, on alpine slopes above the recent rain line poorly bonded crusts, facets, and/or buried surface hoar may be susceptible to triggers. Professionals are still concerned with a buried crust from November, down 50-70 cm, that could be triggered by large loads.