Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 26th, 2013–Nov 27th, 2013

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

Below Threshold

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

Below Threshold

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

Below Threshold

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: South Rockies.

Check out the South Rockies Blog for thoughts on early season forecasting in this region. If you have recent observations please send them to [email protected]

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: There should be enough mixing to clear the inversion out by Friday afternoon, but the pattern remains dry for the forecast period. Weather models are pointing towards a change on Sunday, but its far enough out that I'm not putting a whole lot of faith in it yet. Check back for more info on changing conditions tomorrow.Wednesday: Freezing Level: 1000m Precip: No significant precip expected. Wind: Light SEThursday: Freezing Level: Near 0 C at Valley Bottom, above freezing layer from 1500 - 2500m. Precip: No significant precip expected. Wind: Light, SW.Friday: Freezing Level: 1500m Precip: No significant precip expected. Wind: Light, SW increasing to Moderate SW in the late afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

The last reported avalanche activity was during the tail end of the storm on Tuesday Nov 19th. If you see or trigger an avalanche, please send us a note at: [email protected]

Snowpack Summary

Observations from this region are EXTREMELY limited at the moment!Treeline snowpack depths in sheltered areas vary between approximately 40-100 cm. Since the snow stopped falling on Nov 19th it has been subjected to strong wind, cold temps and chinook driven warming. As a result it should be easy to find wind scoured snow, old windslabs, temperature crusts & surface facet formation in a single day's ride or tour.A crust or significant density change may exist around 40 - 70 cm below the surface. This has been reported to have weak faceted crystals above and below. Compression Test results vary from a sudden planar "pop" to no result at all. Below this near the base of the snowpack, an earlier crust buried in October lies just above the ground. This layer may still be of concern on isolated smooth terrain features that have not seen avalanche activity yet.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Smooth alpine slopes that did not previously slide may still be of concern. With very little data on the current conditions, you need to be your own detective out there. Treat all slopes with these qualities as suspect until proven otherwise.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging down and testing on adjacent, safe slopes before committing to a line.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Most of these old tired wind slabs will not be reactive to human triggering. But, be aware that some of the most enticing lines in the mountains at the moment are probably wind loaded features and the odd one could take you for a ride.

Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3