Increasing hazard is tied directly to the forecasted warm up. If it doesn’t warm up until Wednesday, Tuesdays ratings are one level too high. See the
forecasters blog for some ideas about the changing situation.
Summary
Confidence
Poor - Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
Monday: Mod/Strong W/NW winds at ridgetop. Freezing level at valley bottom. No significant snowfall.Tuesday: Day starts out similar to Monday. Very warm air floats into the region in the afternoon. Temps may rise above freezing at 2300m. Little overnight recovery.Wednesday: Some lingering cold air remains in the valleys, temperatures between 1000m & 2500m rise as warm as +5c.
Avalanche Summary
Lot's of slope testing in the Lizard today, no slab releases. Avalanche activity was limited to loose dry avalanches.
Snowpack Summary
Around 50 cm of storm snow fell in favored locations earlier this week. This snow rests on a myriad of old surfaces (January 4th interface) that include sun crust on steep south and west facing terrain, surface hoar in sheltered locations at treeline and below and facets everywhere else. The bond at this interface has tightened up and gained a lot of strength with the cold temps. Our field team didn't have any failures on this layer in their travels around Harvey Pass Friday.Wind slabs created during and just after last weeks storm have grown old and tired. The midpack is well settled and strong with one or two (location specific) crusts deep in the snowpack. These crust/facets combos are largely dormant, with the only concern being triggering from a shallow snowpack area or with a heavy trigger.
ghelgeson,
Avalanche Canada
