Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Tuesday

Tuesday: A Pacific frontal system arrives bringing 5-10 cm new snow and strong westerly winds, which at ridge top could reach 100 km/h. Freezing levels will spike to around 1600 m in the afternoon. Wednesday: the cold front associated with the system moves through, bringing light amounts of snow and bringing freezing levels down to around 1000 m. Winds should become moderate northwesterly. Thursday: Dry, with light northwesterly winds and freezing levels around 800 m.

Numerous avalanches sized 1.5 were reported on Sunday at all elevations and focussed predominantly on easterly aspects. Remote-triggering was reported, where the avalanche was triggered from up to 100 m from where it initiated.

In southern and western parts of the region, 40-50 cm of recent snow sits of a highly reactive weak layer comprising surface hoar (most prevalent in the west of the region), sugary facets on shady northerly aspects and sun crusts on solar aspects. This interface has started to react to human-triggering. Certain features of the reactivity, such as remote triggering and the ability to initiate avalanches on relatively low angled terrain, point to this weak layer shaping up to be quite dangerous. In areas further north, less snow has fallen on this interface--in the northern Elk Valley for instance, only around 15 cm lies above this interface. In lower snow areas, avalanche activity will likely lag behind higher snow areas. In general, the mid-pack is quite strong in most locations. However, lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones.