Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2023–Dec 4th, 2023
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.

Avalanche danger will increase Monday as rain soaks the snowpack. Minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We are expecting a natural loose wet avalanche cycle up to size 2 as the rain intensifies on Monday.

So far this season no avalanches have been reported, but this MIN from Mount Becher describes signs of instability in the recent snow on Saturday. If you're heading out in the backcountry, please consider sharing any observations on the Mountain Information Network 🙏

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent snow is getting soaked with rain at elevations below 2400 m. Depending on elevation, this snow sits over a shallow cover of crusts and old snow, or directly on the ground. The snowline is likely creeping up as rain washes it away at lower elevations.

Weather Summary

A warm, wet storm arrives on Monday, bringing heavy rain and positive temperatures up to 3000 m. Things start to cool off again on Tuesday.

Sunday night

Cloudy. A trace of new snow. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1300 m.

Monday

Rain (20-40mm). Strong southerly ridgetop wind. Freezing level spiking to 3000 m.

Tuesday

Mixed precip overnight (10-30 mm), easing and turning to snow in the morning (5-10 mm). Strong southerly ridgetop wind easing to moderate southwest. Freezing level dropping from 3000 m to 1600 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Calm. Freezing level 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from rain.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely on Monday as rain soaks the snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2