Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 13th, 2016 8:56AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Continued snow and wind Sunday night will keep danger ratings elevated at upper elevations. Stay conservative with terrain choices as the upper snowpack adjusts to this most recent load.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

The Kootenay Boundary should see one more shot of snow and wind Sunday night. Monday marks the beginning of a shift towards a more classical spring pattern that follows a strong diurnal temperature swing with very little in the way of precipitation expected for the foreseeable future. SUNDAY NIGHT: Freezing level holding at 1500 m, 5 to 15 cm of snow, strong southwest winds. MONDAY: Freezing level starting near valley bottom rising to 1400 m, 1 to 3 cm of snow, moderate southwest winds. TUESDAY: Freezing level starting near valley bottom, rising to 1500 m, no significant precipitation expected, moderate west / northwest winds. WEDNESDAY: Freezing level starting near valley bottom, rising to 1500 m, no significant precipitation, light variable winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday numerous human triggered storm slab avalanches to size 2 were reported on northwest, north, northeast and east facing aspects between 1800 and 2200 m. One deeper persistent slab avalanche was triggered after a snow-cat intentionally pushed a cornice onto a north facing feature at 2200 m resulting in a size 3 avalanche that was 100 cm deep on average. Check out the Mountain Information Network for more details about a human triggered size 2 avalanche on a NW facing slope along the Bonnington Traverse. On Thursday reports included numerous natural avalanches up to Size 3 in response to heavy loading from snow, wind and rain. Most of the natural avalanches were storm and wind slabs, but a few persistent slabs also ran naturally on the late February persistent weak layer. Explosives and other artificial triggers (i.e. snow cats) produced additional Size 2 to 3 persistent slab activity, with remote and sympathetic triggers as well as a 50 to 100 cm thick slab releasing from the impact of the dropped charge, before it exploded.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 40 cm of fresh snow has fallen in the last 48 hours combined with moderate southwest winds which have likely created deep wind slabs on the leeward side of ridgecrests and mid-slope terrain features. In some drainages these fresh storm and wind slabs may be sitting on a thin crust that was initially buried on March 11th. A second curst, (the early March melt/freeze crust) can be found down 30 to 80 cm. A persistent weak layer buried late-February is typically down 60 to 120 cm and remains sensitive to triggering as indicated by recent avalanche activity. This weakness is widespread buried surface hoar on sheltered slopes above 1700 m, and a crust potentially with associated facets on previously sun-exposed slopes (primarily south aspects).

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Fresh slabs formed by recent snow and wind rest on one or potentially two slippery rain crusts which should allow these slabs to remain sensitive to human triggering for the next few days.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Choose well supported conservative lines and watch for clues that indicate instability.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
The late-February persistent weakness is now down around 100 cm below the surface. Cornice fall, a surface avalanche in motion or even a rider in a thin spot could initiate an avalanche on this interface.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar. >Surface avalanches in motion could step down and initiate persistent slab avalanches which have the potential to be large and destructive.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Mar 14th, 2016 2:00PM

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