Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 23rd, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada jpercival, Avalanche Canada

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Cool weather, and variable winds have preserved the previous storm snow and promoted the formation of wind slabs.

Expect wind slabs to exist on all aspects.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Sunday's Min reports show interesting slab properties that occurred during skiing. check the embedded MIN for a review.

On Saturday a small (size 1) avalanche was observed adjacent to Mt. Joan.

On Friday, operational ski cutting near Comox produced numerous small (size 1) dry loose avalanches on north aspect treeline terrain. During afternoon operations several small (size 1) wet loose avalanches on steep south aspect below tree line terrain were as well initiated via ski cutting.

On Thursday, Numerous avalanches on the north island in both the alpine and at treeline were observed with a few large (size 2), with most being small (size 1). One large (size 2) natural storm slab avalanche occurrence was reported. This avalanche was located on north aspect terrain between 1300 and 1400 m elevation.

It remains possible that riders could trigger storm slabs in sheltered areas, particularly if all the recent storm snow has a poor bond to the underlying melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack consists of 30 to 60 cm of storm snow that has been redistributed by the wind over the past 2 days and has had some time to slowly settle. This overlies a pronounced melt-freeze crust that can be found at elevations 1500 m and below. Above 1500 m the melt-freeze crust begins to lose strength and is less than 1 cm thick.

The mid and lower snowpack remains moist and is generally well-settled and dense.

Snowpack depths are highly variable and have been recorded between 200 and 300 cm, the consistent theme is that they taper quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths. Expect at these elevations terrain that lacks tree coverage such as steep cliffs, and open alpine-like features to have the potential to produce avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 5 cm, Northwestern winds 40 km/h to 60 km/h, treeline temperature 0 °C. freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with very light snowfall/rainfall, accumulation 1 to 2 mm, Northwestern winds 50 km/h, treeline temperature 3 °C. freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday

Clear and sunny, Northwestern winds 30 km/hr, treeline temperature rising to 5 °C. freezing level rising to 2500 m.

Thursday

Clear and sunny, Northwestern winds 50 km/h, treeline temperature rising to 5 °C. freezing level maintains at 2500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Wind slabs have formed in lee terrain features from past wind and snow. Assess for wind slabs prior to committing to large terrain. Also use caution in steep wind-sheltered terrain, where the recent snow may take a bit of time to bond to an underlying crust.

Expect forecast northwesterly wind to transport available snow onto south-aspect terrain. Be cognizant of the potential for wind slabs to become present on all aspects in the alpine and at treeline.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 24th, 2023 4:00PM