Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
Keep an eye on conditions that change with elevation and over time. There is uncertainty in how the snow pack will react to the rising freezing level. If you notice natural avalanche activity or moist surfaces back off and choose simple terrain.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Friday explosives and ski cutting produced wind slab avalanches up to size 1.5. These avalanches were on northerly aspects at treeline.
Snowpack Summary
20 to 40cm of recent snow overlies a supportive crust at treeline. Above treeline the crust may not exist or will be thinner and less supportive. Below treeline recent precipitation has fallen as rain. This rain saturated as much as 70 cm that accumulated above 700 m from the previous storm pulse at the end of last week.
These upper snowpack characteristics top a melt-freeze crust that is now likely breaking down where it was thinnest. The crust was previously up to 10 cm thick at lower elevations and tapered to 1 cm thick on shaded or high-elevation terrain. A few cm of softer snow recently found immediately below this crust is almost certainly now settled and bonded along with the remainder of the snowpack beneath it.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected at higher elevations. Light southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1500m.
Sunday
Cloudy with up to 10mm of rain turning to snow at higher elevations in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to over 2000m and then falling to 1100m.
Monday
A mix of sun and cloud with flurries bringing up to 5cm of new snow. Moderate westerly winds and a high of -4 at 1500m.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light to moderate west winds and a high of -4 at 1500m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
- Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Southwest winds have formed wind slabs on north and east aspects at treeline and above.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2