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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2023–Feb 12th, 2023
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Keep an eye on conditions that change with elevation and over time. There is uncertainty in how the snow pack will react to the rising freezing level. If you notice natural avalanche activity or moist surfaces back off and choose simple terrain.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Friday explosives and ski cutting produced wind slab avalanches up to size 1.5. These avalanches were on northerly aspects at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 40cm of recent snow overlies a supportive crust at treeline. Above treeline the crust may not exist or will be thinner and less supportive. Below treeline recent precipitation has fallen as rain. This rain saturated as much as 70 cm that accumulated above 700 m from the previous storm pulse at the end of last week.

These upper snowpack characteristics top a melt-freeze crust that is now likely breaking down where it was thinnest. The crust was previously up to 10 cm thick at lower elevations and tapered to 1 cm thick on shaded or high-elevation terrain. A few cm of softer snow recently found immediately below this crust is almost certainly now settled and bonded along with the remainder of the snowpack beneath it.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected at higher elevations. Light southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1500m.

Sunday

Cloudy with up to 10mm of rain turning to snow at higher elevations in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to over 2000m and then falling to 1100m.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with flurries bringing up to 5cm of new snow. Moderate westerly winds and a high of -4 at 1500m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light to moderate west winds and a high of -4 at 1500m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Southwest winds have formed wind slabs on north and east aspects at treeline and above.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2