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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2020–Jan 1st, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

The recent snow may be easy to move, with the thickest deposits found in steep, lee terrain features.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level rising to 1400 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 25 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

The recent snow was reported as being easy to trigger. A few small storm and wind slab avalanches were also triggered by explosives out of steep northerly terrain at treeline and lower alpine elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Around 10 to 20 cm of recent snow remains soft in sheltered terrain but may have been blown into small wind slabs in exposed terrain from northeast switching to southwest wind. This snow may continue to slide easily, particularly in steep and committing terrain.

In the Lizard Range, a few reports indicate a potential weakness in the snow around 20 to 40 cm deep, potentially on sugary faceted grains around a melt-freeze crust up to an elevation of approximately 1800 m. It remains to be seen if this layer will become an avalanche problem.

Around 50 to 100 cm deep, weak layers of feathery surface hoar and/or faceted grains may overly a hard melt-freeze crust. These layer appears to be bonding in certain areas of the region but remain suspect, where they exist.

Terrain and Travel

  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent snow may form small slabs, particularly in exposed terrain where the wind could stiffen it. Steep terrain will be the most likely place to get the snow to move. If triggered, the snow may have the potential of pushing riders in committing terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Weak layers of feathery surface hoar and/or sugary faceted grains may be found above a hard melt-freeze crust around 50 to 100 cm deep. Although avalanche activity hasn't been reported on these weak layers for over a week, the possibility remains that a rider could trigger them, where they exist.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3