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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 23rd, 2021–Jan 24th, 2021
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

A dusting of new snow falls ontop of generally firm, crystal-covered surfaces. It may seem harmless now but as more snow gradually accumulates, this interface is expected to become problematic in the long term. So enjoy the fast travel and good stability while you can.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels at valley bottom.

Saturday night: Increasing cloud with flurries starting, up to 5 cm, light to moderate westerly wind, alpine temperature -9.

Sunday: Flurries up to 5 cm, light westerly wind, alpine high -9.

Monday: Flurries up to 5 cm, light southerly wind, alpine high -10.

Tuesday: Flurries up to 5 cm, moderate southeast wind, alpine high -12.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports in the last few days. Explosive control work targeting cornices on Thursday produced size 1.5 results and did not trigger slabs in the slopes below. This indicates an improvement in stability since last weekend, when similar work produced size 2 results, some triggering deep slabs on the rocky slopes below. 

Earlier this month, we saw significant deep persistent slab activity, both natural and human triggered. Deep glide cracks have also been observed previously but appear to be holding together in the cool temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow falls on generally hard surfaces throughout the region; old stiff wind slab at upper elevations and a crust below 1900 m and on south aspects. In the recent cool, clear weather, crystals such as surface hoar and facets have formed ontop of these old surfaces. They are expected to become problematic as snow accumulates overtop.

Remnants of a melt-freeze crust from early December may be found around 200 cm deep in the snowpack. In shallow rocky snowpack spots, it still shows some propagation and collapse to moderate to hard loading in the most recent snowpack tests. In thicker snowpack areas it has shown no results, and appears to be trending dormant... for now at least.

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Minimize exposure to slopes with cornices overhead and stay well back of them when travelling on ridges.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5