Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 14th, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Get it while its good folks! Conditions are ripe for getting Rad! Below 1900ms the snowpack is less supportive so travel gingerly through this terrain.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Overnight temperature threatening to drop to an appalling -20 as a cold front moves into the region. Little recovery expected over the day with forecasted highs around -15. A series of unremarkable systems expected to bring only very light flurries. NW-ly ridge top winds should be in the low moderate range bringing a sting to sensitive ginger skin.

Snowpack Summary

The snow pack is consistently supportive with little variation in mid-pack density above 2000ms. Excellent quality touring and skiing at all elevations. Wind slab can be found in lee areas at and above treeline. Dec 3rd interface is down about 60cm but it is not easily triggered. Below 1900ms the HS is more typical of the Rockies; weak and shallow.

Avalanche Summary

No new significant avalanche activity has been observed albeit minor point releases reported on solar aspects from steep rocky terrain.

Confidence

Due to the quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

A 10 to 15cm windslab can be found in lee areas at treeline and into the alpine. Several natural avalanches started with this slab and then stepped down to full depth releases in the alpine following last weeks storm.

If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Dec3 layer down 60cm has not been associated with any observed natural activity nor has it proven to be reactive to skier traffic. Forecasters will continue to monitor the break-down of this interface cautiously.

Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Dec 15th, 2015 4:00PM