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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2019–Jan 16th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

The possibility remains of triggering a deep layer of sugary facets. A diligent approach to avoiding steep, thin, and rocky slopes is recommended.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, light wind, alpine temperatures drop to -12 C.WEDNESDAY: Dry with a mix of sun and cloud, light southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -6 C. THURSDAY: Light snowfall, roughly 5 cm, light wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.FRIDAY: Isolated flurries, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region, but natural avalanches continue to be reported in the Kananaskis region to the north.On Saturday, a size 2 natural deep persistent slab avalanche was observed on a south facing feature around 2100 m (more details here). There is also a great MIN report from the neighboring Lizard Range where a group of sledders share about their near miss on a steep southwest facing feature at ridgecrest.On Friday, we received a great Mountain Information Network observation of natural activity on solar aspects (more details here). A size 2-2.5 natural avalanche was also reported on a north aspect at 2200 m on Friday. This avalanche was likely triggered by a rock fall, and ran on the deep persistent layer at the base of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm alpine temperatures left crusty surfaces on southerly aspects. The snow appears to have remained dry on northerly aspects.Large variability in snow depths still exists in the region, ranging from almost no snow to nearly 200 cm in some areas. For average snowpack areas, expect to find weak and sugary faceted snow around 50 to 100 cm deep, which extend to the ground. This weak bottom half of the snowpack has been the culprit for large avalanches in the region over the past few weeks.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deeply buried weak layers remain a concern. These layers are more easily triggered in areas where the snowpack is shallow, such as near ridges and rocky terrain.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Avoid steep slopes in areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Small wind slabs may be triggerable on loaded slopes. The real danger is if a small slab stepped down to the lower weak layer.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2