Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 17th, 2018–Mar 18th, 2018

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Watch for signs of instability, such as cracking and avalanche activity at higher elevations. Use caution at low elevations if the snow surface is wet, especially if the sun comes out for any length of time.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

We're looking at seasonal temperatures in a north / westerly flow. Snow fall amounts are uncertain, as is the cloud cover on Sunday: Sunny conditions will increase avalanche danger. SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks in the morning; light snowfall late in the day (accumulation 3 to 8 cm possible). Light northerly winds. Alpine temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1400 m.MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate westerly winds. Alpine temperature +1 C. Freezing level rising to 1600 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Light westerly winds. Alpine temperature +2 C. Freezing level 1700 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, several small wet loose avalanches were reported on sunny aspects at all elevations. A size 1.5 natural cornice failure was also reported on a high north east facing ridge line, which did not trigger any slabs below.

Snowpack Summary

Variable but overall small amounts of new snow fell at high elevations and rain fell at low elevations on Thursday. The sun came out on Friday and Saturday, creating a melt-freeze crust on sunny aspects, but still leaving dry snow to be found on north aspects above 1300m.Thursday's snow fell on a previous melt-freeze crust produced by warm air temperatures, sun, and rain. The crust exists everywhere except for possibly shady aspects at high elevations. Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December and late-November weak layers are composed of crusts and sugary facets, which are down 150-300 cm. These layers have been dormant but may be awoken by a large trigger, such as a cornice fall, or by humans traveling in thin-to-thick snowpack areas.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow may not bond well to underlying surfaces.

Keep an eye out for localized areas of deeper snow accumulation, particularly on eastern slopesUse caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow may form touchy slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

Watch for softening snow conditions if the sun comes out or temperatures warm up. Use caution in terrain features where a small avalanche could have serious consequences.

Watch for signs that the snow is moistening such as pin-wheeling and point-releases below cliffs.Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where small avalanches can have high consequence.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2