Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2018–Feb 3rd, 2018

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

New windslabs are expected to be building overnight on Friday. Use caution moving into upper elevations.

Weather Forecast

A warm and wet airmass is colliding into a cold dry airmass along the continental divide. This is expected to produce significant snowfall, amounts for the Jasper forecast region is expected to be 10-30cm overnight on Friday. After this precipitation pulse, there will be a cooling trend and calm winds with minimal precipitation.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of recent storm snow has been pushed around by intermittently moderate to strong SW winds and created fresh windslabs in exposed areas, particularly in the alpine. In sheltered areas, this new snow sits as a touchy storm slab in many locations. Midpack persistent weak layers (Jan 16, Jan 7, and Dec 15) are still a concern but remain stubborn.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control on Wednesday along the Icefields Parkway produced numerous size 3 avalanches in the alpine, and many size 2-2.5 storm slab and loose avalanches at all elevations. Persistent slab avalanches were produced in the alpine where wind loaded areas provided enough of a trigger to step down to these layers.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

This is the primary concern at all elevations. The new snow has settled into a touchy soft slab in many locations. This presents as a windslab in exposed areas, such as cross loaded and lee features at upper elevations.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

Point releases have the ability to entrain new snow and accumulate significant mass.

Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Control work on Wednesday produced several results on this layer, particularly in the alpine where storm slabs were able to entrain enough mass to step down to mid-pack instabilities.

If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3