Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, light wind from the southwest, alpine temperatures drop to -16 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, light wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -15 C.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the north, alpine high temperatures around -20 C.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, light wind from the north, alpine high temperatures around -25 C.

Large avalanches (size 2-3) were observed in the wake of Tuesday and Wednesday's storm. Many of these avalanches released on a surface hoar layer that formed in late December resulting in 60-120 cm thick slabs. Check out this MIN, this MIN, and this MIN for helpful illustrations of slopes that are likely to harbor this problem. Looking forward, this problem appears to have variable distribution across the region, meaning steep terrain should continue to be approached cautiously.

Low density snow continues to accumulate. Most areas likely have 10-30 cm of soft snow, but stiffer and reactive slabs could be forming in terrain affected by the wind. Recent storms have loaded a concerning layer of surface hoar from late December, which is now buried 60-120 cm deep. Recent observations and snowpack tests suggest the reactivity of this layer is now variable across the region. Preserved surface hoar could potentially be found on sheltered slopes anywhere in the region, with the potential for producing large avalanches.

• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
• Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.