Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: 5-10cm of snow possible overnight, heaviest in the east near Nelson. Light westerly winds. Freezing level around 1200 m dropping to valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with snowfall continuing over the day. 10-20 cm is forecast, again heaviest near Nelson. Light northwest winds. Freezing levels around 1200 m. Alpine high of -6.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light winds from the north. Chance of isolated flurries. Freezing levels at valley bottom. Alpine high of -10. 

TUESDAY: Mostly clear skies with moderate northeast winds. Freezing levels at valley bottom, alpine high of -12. 

There have been regular reports of small natural and human-triggered wind slabs along ridgetops over the past few days. With the incoming storm we expect to see larger slabs forming at upper elevations. 

Persistent slab avalanches were reported on Friday from explosive and human triggers, failing on the late January surface hoar layer. This activity was limited to north/northeast aspects around tree line elevations - these specific areas continue to be a concern for human triggering throughout this storm. 

New snow will form reactive storm slabs at all elevations. The storm snow will bury a small surface hoar layer in sheltered terrain - which sits over a melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevations, and wind effected surfaces in exposed terrain. 

Two layers of buried surface hoar sit in the upper snowpack, most likely to be found and triggered on north aspects in sheltered areas. These are now down around 30-50 cm and 60-80 cm deep. These layers remain reactive in some snowpack tests and have resulted in avalanche activity over the past week. 

The lower snowpack is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found 100 to 200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant, but could become active later this season. Check out the forecaster blog for more information. 

• Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.