Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

General cooling and clearing trend with cold northern air providing good refreezes overnight, but upslope flow will continue to bring spotty cloud cover and bits of snowfall through the forecast period.

Saturday Night: Scattered clouds. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light east ridgetop wind, trending to northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level falling to valley bottom. Treeline low around -8 °C.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light east ridgetop wind, trending to moderate north at higher elevations. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1400 m through the day. Treeline high around -5 °C.

Monday: Partly cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light west ridgetop wind, trending to strong northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1500 m through the day. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected overnight, and a possible trace through the day. Freezing level stays at valley bottom. Alpine temperatures around -15 °C.

On Saturday, near Fernie, avalanche control with explosives triggered several storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on northeast aspects in the alpine, and a few loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 around treeline. 

On Friday, near Fernie, numerous natural, rider, and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported. Also, Numerous loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported in steep terrain on all aspects below tree line.

On Thursday, there were reports of many small Loose Wet avalanches in steep terrain below tree line across the region.

 

20-35 cm of new snow fell with light winds overnight on Thursday and into Friday morning. A melt freeze crust may be present underneath this new snow, on all aspects, and reported as high as 2100 m. Snow has generally been rain-soaked below 1600 m. Expect to find moist snow underneath the melt-freeze crust, especially at lower elevations.

50-100 cm of recent storm snow is settling on a variety of old surfaces buried in late February: sun crusts, freezing rain crusts, old wind-pressed snow or cold, weak snow crystals on shaded aspects.

Smaller avalanches may step down to old, persistent layers such as the surface hoar layer buried at the end of January. The distribution of this layer is spotty in nature but has produced avalanches and concerning snowpack test results in the past week, mostly in the Flathead. While it does not appear to be as widespread or reactive in the Lizard Range, it has been found in some locations. 

The lower snowpack is generally well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early December found near the ground. It is currently considered dormant but could become active later this season. 

• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
• Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
• Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
• Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
• Avoid rock outcroppings, convexities, and anywhere the snowpack is thin and/or variable.