Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

A weather system will approach the BC coast today. Tonight, the system will pivot towards the southern half of BC. The system will stall over southern BC tonight through the weekend resulting in persistent rain showers and alpine snow. The convective nature associated with this system could bring higher localized precipitation amounts.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with some isolated flurries. Winds light from the southeast. Alpine temperatures near 0 and freezing levels 1800 m.

Saturday: Snow 10-20 cm at upper elevations. Wind light from the South. Alpine temperatures near +2 and freezing levels 1500 m. 

Sunday: Snow 10-20 cm at upper elevations. Light wind from the South. Alpine temperatures -2 and freezing levels 1600 m. 

Monday: Cloudy with some sunny periods and snow 5 cm. Light-moderate wind from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -1 and freezing levels 1800 m.

 

At treeline and in the alpine, the new snow combined with light to moderate wind may build fresh and reactive storm slabs. The new snow may have a poor bond to the old snow surfaces which are mostly crusts. Below treeline will see rain and will likely keep snow surfaces wet and weak below the treeline elevations. Loose wet avalanches are possible. 

Cornices remain weak and fragile. They require a large berth from above and below as they are very unpredictable.

There have been no recent avalanche reports since last Saturday. 

Last weekend, reports of natural loose wet avalanches size 2-3 on solar aspects continued. Explosive work produced size 2-3.5 wet slab avalanches, failing on crusts in the upper snowpack and gouging to the ground as they ran to near valley bottom.

New snow will accumulate at treeline and in the alpine through the weekend building fresh and reactive storm slabs. The new snow will be landing on a melt-freeze crust that extends to the alpine on solar slopes and 2100 m on polar slopes. It may bond poorly. Rain below treeline will likely keep the snow surfaces wet and weak.

There are no deeper layers of concern in the snowpack, which has been melting and settling over the past week. Lower elevations have mostly been isothermal and melting away rapidly.

Large cornices loom along many ridgelines. They are weak and very unpredictable.

• Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
• Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
• Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
• A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
• Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.