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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 17th, 2021–Mar 18th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Start and finish your trip early to manage another warm day on Thursday. A steady cooling trend with light precipitation will take us into the weekend.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Clear. Light southwest winds, moderate in the alpine.

Thursday: Sunny. Light southwest winds, moderate in the alpine, increasing overnight. Alpine high temperatures around +3 with freezing levels reaching 2400 metres.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with isolated wet flurries in the alpine. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around 0 with freezing levels to 2000 metres.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -4 with freezing levels to 1600 metres.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday. 

Otherwise, wet loose avalanches in the size 1-2 range have been reported from alpine and treeline elevations over the past few days. A couple of recent cornice falls from the last week have been noted as well. Expect similar hazards to re-emerge with the heat of the day on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

The alpine may be wind affected in open areas. Snow on all solar aspects and lower elevation bands will start out crusty but will likely become moist by mid morning. Reports suggest snow on northerly terrain above 1600 m has so far remained dry. Cornices are large and looming, and glide cracks are increasing in size...both should be considered unpredictable and given a wide berth.

Around 30 to 50 cm of snow sits above a layer of sugary faceted grains that were buried in mid-February. In some areas, there may be an old layer of feathery surface hoar or facets from late January down 50 to 80 cm deep. There have been no reported avalanches on either of these layers in the region in the last 10 days, but there is always lingering concern that consecutive days in a row of warm temperatures may increase the reactivity of deeper weak layers in isolated areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Sun and warm daytime temperatures can quickly destabilize the upper snowpack and increase the likelihood of wet loose avalanches. Pinwheeling and moist surface snow are strong signs of this kind of instability. Even small avalanches can be a hazard in high consequence terrain and above terrain traps.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Cornices are large and will weaken with sun and daytime heating. Big cornice falls are a hazard on their own but can also trigger avalanches on the slopes below. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5