Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

A warm front will move over the southern part of the province midday Wednesday. The Cariboo region is not expected to see the warm temperatures but will get the heavy precipitation as the moist air mixes with the colder Arctic air. This will persist through Thursday before the Arctic front pushes down from the north on Friday. Wednesday: Precipitation 3-6mm, freezing levels valley bottom, ridgetop wind light SW-WWeds. Night: Precipitation 10-15mm, ridgetop wind moderate SWThursday: Precipitation 15-25mm, freezing levels valley bottom, ridgetop wind strong SWFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, snow flurries possible, freezing level valley bottom, ridgetop wind light variable

One observer in the Raft Mountain area observed several small natural avalanches and easily triggered a few more on steep road banks on Saturday. There are no new observations from higher terrain but given the amount of new snow in the past few days it's likely that there was some sort of natural avalanche cycle. Natural avalanche activity is expected to increase as the storm snow continues to accumulate.

This is an estimate of what the snowpack may look like based of a few observations and previous weather. If you plan on riding in avalanche terrain be sure to supplement this with your own observations and please pass along any data you collect ([email protected]). Around 50-80cm of recent storm snow sits on the mid-November drought layer (facets, surface hoar, and/or a sun crust on steep southerly slopes). Below this is 20-30 cm of old snow, which is probably quite weak and facetted (sugary). A thick rain crust which formed a few weeks ago is now down 70cm or more. The average snowpack depth at treeline is now around 90-120cm. Recent strong and variable winds have probably created dense wind slabs in exposed terrain and resulted in variable snow distribution. At lower elevations expect travel to be difficult and potentially hazardous as many early season hazards are exposed or lightly buried (stumps, logs, rocks, open creeks, etc).