Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 26th, 2015 8:43AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Rising alpine temperatures up to +5c are in the forecast for the next few days. Use care venturing into big terrain at treeline and above on solar aspects. Consider sharing your observations through the Mountain Information Network MIN

Summary

Weather Forecast

An arctic high remains in the forecast region with no precipitation in the forecast for the next 4 days. Strong northerly winds at ridge top are beginning to moderate and will turn to light winds through the weekend. Above freezing temperatures in the alpine are forecast to begin Friday morning and continue into the weekend but valley bottoms will remain well below freezing. At this point no significant change is forecast until Monday or Tuesday next week.

Avalanche Summary

We have no recent reports of avalanche activity in the forecast area, most likely because of few observers at this time.

Snowpack Summary

The most recent storm snow fell on a variety of old surfaces that included crust, surface hoar and old settled snow. Arctic air moving into the region has resulted in northerly winds which have formed small wind slabs on south facing features near ridge top. Warm temps and strong solar input formed a crust on south facing features which can be found underneath Monday's storm snow. There are at least three surface hoar layers in the snowpack buried on: Nov. 5th, Nov. 11th and Nov. 23rd. The first two have been largely unreactive. Facets may exist just above the ground on polar slopes in the alpine.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Winds from the north have built wind slabs on southerly features. These slabs will be most problematic immediately lee of ridge crest, but you may encounter them in the right features at treeline too. Take care to evaluate wind affected terrain

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid travelling in areas that have been reverse loaded by winds.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

November weak layers may become less reactive, but it's important to remember, there may be a weak layer of crust and facets near the ground, and most likely to be found on north through east facing alpine features.

Now is a good time to dig a snow profile (or two) and figure out how the snowpack changes with aspect and elevation.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Nov 27th, 2015 2:00PM