The snowpack in the Two Thumb Range should stay stable as it misses out on the snow and rain closer to the divide.
Keep an eye on the actual amount of precipitation on Thursday. The hazard will increase quickly if it is heavier than forecast.
Be prepared for a widespread sliding hazard with lots of rocks in the runouts.
Windslabs are unlikely unless more snow spills over to the forecast area than is forecast. Keep an eye on the amount of precipitation and be prepared to back off steep terrain if significant loading happens.Even a small avalanche may be consequential with rocks or cliffs in the runout.
No recent avalanches have been reported.
If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It really helps us to produce accurate forecasts.
Previous gale force wind from the northwest and southwest has left old crusts and rock exposed on ridges and upper elevations.
Deeper snow and good "spring" skiing has been reported at mid and lower elevations on northern slopes.
A widespread rain crust below about 2200m has undergone several melt freeze cycles on sunny slopes
Snow depths in the south are about 70cm, tapering to about about 50cm mid range and 40cm in the north.
The snowpack north of Stag Saddle is not well understood, with no direct observations.
Mostly cloudy.
Wind at 1000 metres
Northwesterly 40 km/h rising to severe gale 90 km/h in the afternoon. Easing to gale 70 km/h at night.
Wind at 2000 metres
Northeasterly 40 km/h rising to gale 70 km/h in the morning, then severe gale 100 km/h in the afternoon.
Freezing level
1800 metres.
The wind has stripped the soft snow back to exposed crusts.
Below 2000m, the snowpack has gone through melt freeze cycles, so any overnight freeze will form a slick crust.
Expect high sliding danger with lots of rocks in the runouts.
Iceaxe and crampons are highly recommended.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
