Warm temperatures and rain will destabilize the already weak snowpack especially at lower elevations. Ice climbers in particular should stay out of low elevation gullies.
Avalanche problems
Loose Wet
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
1–2
Warm temperatures and rain will increase avalanche activity especially at lower elevations and in gully features.
Deep Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible - Likely
Size
2–3
The primary problems in the snowpack are the Nov. 6th and 24th facet/crust interfaces. These layers are most reactive in alpine/ treeline areas where the wind has slabbed up the surface snow.
Weather Forecast
Strong southwesterly winds, light precipitation, and warm temperatures with freezing levels to 2000m will dominate on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will drop and winds will ease on Friday.
Snowpack Summary
Warmer daytime temperatures are promoting settlement of the upper snowpack and creating more of a slab over the basal facets/ rain crust especially in wind affected areas. The lower half of the snowpack is poorly structured, with facets (Nov 24th) below the recent storm snow, thin crusts (Nov 6th) below this, and then depth hoar near the ground.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche control work today at the Lake Louise Ski area triggered avalanches to size 2 in terrain that had been previously controlled. This demonstrates that the weak layers at the base of the snowpack were not cleaned out in last weeks avalanche cycle and will likely be with us for some time.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday