Loose Wet
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Possible
- Size
- 1.5
Loose wet avalanches are possible where precipitation falls as rain onto the existing snowpack.
Temperatures will fluctuate and it could rain as high as 2000m.
Avalanche forecast
View on mapTwo Thumbs
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
Avalanche danger
- High Alpine · above 1,800 m
- 2 · Moderate
- Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
- 2 · Moderate
- Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
- No rating
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 days ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.
Highlights
Strong north-west wind, with heavy rain and snow about the Main Divide.
Wind slab will build rapidly, especially once it starts to snow.
Expect the avalanche danger to increase during the day.
Avalanche problems
Wind Slabs
- All elevations
- Likelihood
- Possible
- Size
- 1.5
The wind slab problem will increase rapidly with gale north-west winds, particularly if it starts to snow.
Watch for wind transport and avoid stiff, wind-pressed snow. Slabs may form well below ridge line.
Recent Avalanche Activity
19-20th Aug: Multiple size 1-2 loose snow avalanches ran out of steep terrain on the west side of the Godley River.
18th Aug: Multiple size 1 wind slabs were ski cut at Roundhill. Small loose snow avalanches ran naturally on very steep terrain at Fox Peak. Both were on north-east aspects above 2000m.
If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It helps us to produce accurate forecasts.
Current Snowpack Conditions
Southern end of range — south of Stag Saddle
Up to 20cm of cold southerly snow fell in the south and east of the range over the weekend. This tapered to 5cm in the west. In places this is capped by a thin rime crust that formed in south-east cloud. The crust is breaking down with cold clear nights.
Tuesday brought strong south to south-west winds, which formed small pockets of reactive wind slab lee to exposed ridges.
Ridge-lines and slopes exposed to the south-west winds, are heavily scoured and stripped back to slick crusts and scree on upper ridges.
Multiple crusts exist in the old snow on all elevations and aspects. Facets (sugary crystals) have begun to form around these crusts at upper elevations, but have not posed problems. At mid-lower elevations, the old snow is well settled and consists of mainly melt forms or round crystals.
Snow depth varies from 40-75cm, with deeper accumulations of 100-120cm in sheltered areas.
Northern end of range — north of Stag Saddle
The snowpack North of Stag Saddle is not well understood. We only have one observation from Monday 10th August from the area around Captains Peak and Mt Toby, reporting only slightly more snow than around Camp Stream or the Richmond Range, with very little old avalanche debris observed. A similar snowpack to the South was reported.
Mountain Weather
Rain about the Main Divide, heavy at times, with snow lowering to 2000 metres in the morning. Partly cloudy elsewhere, with patchier and lighter rain developing in the afternoon.
WIND AT 1000 METRES
Northwesterly gale 80 km/h.
WIND AT 2000 METRES
Severe northwesterly gale 90 km/h, rising to severe gale 115 km/h before dawn.
FREEZING LEVEL
2400 metres, but 1800 metres about the divide in the morning.
Sliding Danger
Slopes will be firm and icy until the sun softens the snow. Plenty of runouts have bare rock or scree. A slip or fall on steep terrain could have serious consequences.
Assess runout zones before committing to steep slopes, and carry equipment appropriate for firm alpine conditions, such as crampons and an ice axe. Conservative route selection remains the most effective way to manage these hazards.
Forecast Confidence
Moderate
- We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
- We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.
- We are uncertain due to rapidly changing freezing levels.
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)