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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2022–Jan 24th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Sustained warm temperatures and sun are forecast to continue this week. Loose wet avalanches will become increasingly likely as the surface crust breaks down, especially on steep sun exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under a warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist through the week bringing very high freezing levels and sun.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy, moderate NW wind, freezing levels rising 2400 to 3000 m.

Monday: Sunny, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 3000 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, light NW wind, freezing level 2700 m. 

Wednesday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing level 2700 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported.

Observations remain limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

MIN reports from Saturday (1, 2, 3) describe hard conditions despite warm temperatures and sun. Perhaps by Monday we'll see some softening of the thick surface crust that reaches all the way to mountain top. Below this crust, snow is moist down 30-50 cm and several old crusts are now breaking down. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong, consisting of well bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.