Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

A ridge of high pressure should keep the region dry for the next three days. Mostly sunny conditions are expected for Monday with light alpine winds. Freezing levels should reach around 1500m or so in the afternoon. Overnight the freezing levels should fall below valley bottom. On Tuesday, a mix of sun and cloud is expected with light alpine winds and freezing levels reaching around 2000m. Conditions should be similar on Wednesday but with increased cloud cover.

No observations were reported on Saturday due to the storm conditions. On Friday, widespread natural activity up to size 3 was reported in parts of the region. This was in response to very warm temperatures and strong sun. These avalanches were mainly in the alpine and were reported on all aspects. However, the largest avalanches were reported from north aspects. Much of this activity was releasing on the mid-February layer down 30-60cm. On Monday, touchy storm slabs are expected in the alpine and possibly at treeline. There is some uncertainty regarding the distribution of these storm slabs but they could be widespread. Thicker winds slabs associated with the storm are expected in leeward features and are the biggest concern for Monday.

At higher elevations, new snow sits over a variety of surfaces including moist snow, crusts, wind affected surfaces, and/or old wind slabs which may still be reactive. Rain has soaked the upper snowpack to around treeline elevation. In the alpine, strong winds during the storm have redistributed the new snow into wind slabs in leeward terrain features. Prior to the storm, 30-50cm of snow was sitting over a weak facet/crust layer that was buried in mid-February. This layer has been quite reactive recently and may increase the likelihood of triggering a storm slab. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer (over 1m deep) and the mid-January surface hoar (around 1.5m deep) have been dormant for several weeks.