Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Synopsis: Slow moving frontal systems are bringing precipitation into the interior of BC for the next few days.Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, trace of precipitation possible. Freezing level should drop to near valley bottom. Winds light, gusting to moderate from the south west.Saturday: Cloudy with flurries. 5 to 10cm precipitation in the forecast for the region, daytime freezing level around 1500m, winds moderate from the south west.Sunday: Cloudy with flurries. Trace of precipitation, for the region, freezing levels around 1300m, winds, light gusting moderate to strong.Monday: Cloudy with light to locally moderate flurries, some parts of the region may see 20cm of precipitation. Freezing level around 2200m, winds moderate, gusting to strong from the south.

No reports of avalanche activity yesterday, but  today (Friday) a commercial operator reported a size 3.5 natural avalanche, on a north aspect, initiating near ridge top in recent storm snow, then stepping down to the Oct./Nov. basal facets and running full path. There is concern that weak layers will become more reactive with rising temperatures and solar warming. This spring, a low probability, high consequence avalanche problem plagues the Columbia regions. Highly destructive and largely unpredictable avalanches are possible right now.

Convective squalls have produced 5 to 10 cm in the last few days throughout the forecast region. Suncrust from the last clear sunny days, has been buried by convective snow squall activity. Wind slabs still exist (and may be building) in lee terrain on NW through E aspects at tree line and above.Three persistent weaknesses now contribute to a highly variable, complex snowpack.A mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm has potential for human-triggering in select locations( New wind slabs have been formed on this layer).An early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human-triggers, but still has the potential to produce large avalanches. We've received recent reports of avalanches stepping down to this layer. A mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar layer that we've been watching is now down around 1.5m and still producing sudden planar shears in snow pit tests. Although direct triggering of this weak layer has become less likely, a large load like a cornice failure or smaller avalanches gaining mass could trigger this layer and produce very a large and destructive avalanche.