Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 14th, 2015 4:00PM
The alpine rating is Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includehttp://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=19299&oPark=100092We have a very touchy avalanche conditions and have seen some very large full path avalanches in the last 24 hrs. Stick to low angle terrain away from large overhead slopes.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Daytime temperatures will cool on Sunday with good overnight freezes possible by Monday. Dry sunny conditions are forecast into the week. Light SW winds will accompany these stable conditions.
Snowpack Summary
Heavy rain that changed to snow overnight has created a saturated snowpack extending into tree line. Limited overnight freeze created a weak melt freeze crust that broke down quickly with daytime heating and solar radiation. At higher elevations, a 40-80 cm deep persistent slab is sitting over multiple touchy interfaces on all aspects.
Avalanche Summary
There has been an avalanche cycle with numerous size 2 slab avalanches ranging form 1700 m to 2600 m on all aspects, many stepping down to the basal facets/November rain crust. Several larger avalanches also observed including a full path size 3.5 on the South Churchill Slide path (East Aspect 2400 m)
Confidence
The weather pattern is stable on Sunday
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Forecasters are doubtful that cooler temperatures will improve this weakness in the short term. Triggering of these slabs is possible even in low angle terrain .
Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
This layer has become more reactive with recent weather. Even light loads are enough to trigger full depth avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 15th, 2015 4:00PM