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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 14th, 2015–Feb 15th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=19299&oPark=100092We have a very touchy avalanche conditions and have seen some very large full path avalanches in the last 24 hrs.  Stick to low angle terrain away from large overhead slopes.

Weather Forecast

Daytime temperatures will cool on Sunday with good overnight freezes possible by Monday.  Dry sunny conditions are forecast into the week.  Light SW winds will accompany these stable conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain that changed to snow overnight has created a saturated snowpack extending into tree line.  Limited overnight freeze created a weak melt freeze crust that broke down quickly with daytime heating and solar radiation.  At higher elevations, a 40-80 cm deep persistent slab is sitting over multiple touchy interfaces on all aspects.

Avalanche Summary

There has been an avalanche cycle with numerous size 2 slab avalanches ranging form 1700 m to 2600 m on all aspects, many stepping down to the basal facets/November rain crust.  Several larger avalanches also observed including a full path size 3.5 on the South Churchill Slide path (East Aspect 2400 m)

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Forecasters are doubtful that cooler temperatures will improve this weakness in the short term.  Triggering of these slabs is possible even in low angle terrain .
Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

This layer has become more reactive with recent weather. Even light loads are enough to trigger full depth avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4