Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 3rd, 2016 4:51PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

a.l. horton, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Rain on Monday will continue the avalanche cycle. Will be hard to find any good skiing until we get back into classic spring melt freeze conditions.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The freezing level will be around tree-line overnight. Overcast on MondayÂ with light rain and freezing level staying high. Similar conditions expected on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Snow conditions are isothermal below 2200m, warm snowpack into the Alpine even on Northerly facing aspects. Persistent slab present at tree line and above. The snowpack at all elevations has a weak base and several mid-pack weaknesses. Many areas below tree line are under threshold especially lower elevations and southerly aspects.Â

Avalanche Summary

A widespread avalanche cycle continues (beginning on Thursday). Point releases and wet slab avalanches to size 3 running at all elevations primarily on solar aspects. Fewer slides are occurring on northerly terrain. Ice climbs are cracking and collapsing because of the warm temps.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Warm overnight temps and forecasted light rain will increase the danger of this problem on Monday. Shallow areas are likely trigger spots. Cornice falls could also act as a trigger. Consequences would be severe.

Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Loose Wet

Be observant of overnight freezing temperatures relative to degree of surface freezing.

Be very cautious with gully features.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Increase occurrence of cornice failures are being noted. It can act as a large trigger initiating deep weaknesses plus their sheer mass, whether or not it initiates an avalanche, would be like being hit by a car.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 4th, 2016 4:00PM