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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 3rd, 2016–Apr 4th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Rain on Monday will continue the avalanche cycle.  Will be hard to find any good skiing until we get back into classic spring melt freeze conditions.

Weather Forecast

The freezing level will be around tree-line overnight. Overcast on Monday  with light rain and freezing level staying high. Similar conditions expected on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Snow conditions are isothermal below 2200m, warm snowpack into the Alpine even on Northerly facing aspects. Persistent slab present at tree line and above. The snowpack at all elevations has a weak base and several mid-pack weaknesses. Many areas below tree line are under threshold especially lower elevations and southerly aspects. 

Avalanche Summary

A widespread avalanche cycle continues (beginning on Thursday). Point releases and wet slab avalanches to size 3 running at all elevations primarily on solar aspects. Fewer slides are occurring on northerly terrain. Ice climbs are cracking and collapsing because of the warm temps.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Warm overnight temps and forecasted light rain will increase the danger of this problem on Monday.  Shallow areas are likely trigger spots. Cornice falls could also act as a trigger. Consequences would be severe.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Loose Wet

Be observant of overnight freezing temperatures relative to degree of surface freezing.
Be very cautious with gully features.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Increase occurrence of cornice failures are being noted. It can act as a large trigger initiating deep weaknesses plus their sheer mass, whether or not it initiates an avalanche, would be like being hit by a car.
Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2