Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 2nd, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Hazard will increase if forecasted snowfall amounts exceed expectations. Assess your ski line carefully, previously exposed rocks and vegetation will be buried under the new snow.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The forecasted snow fall amounts in the 25 to 35 cms range is desperately needed for the good of our skier souls.

Snowpack Summary

New snow overlies existing wind slabs in the top 40cms. Strong supportive mid pack at TL and above over a very weak faceted base at ground. Below tree line the snow pack has very little support or slab development except in isolated open areas where wind slabs may exist.

Avalanche Summary

Road patrol in the northern end of the forecast area observed a sz 1.5 on a steep sw aspect below tree line.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Triggering this layer from a shallow area is possible and would have high consequences in terrain features of any size.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Multiple wind slab layers at the top of the snowpack can be triggered and may step down to the deeper instability at the bottom of the snow pack.

Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Be careful with wind loaded pockets. Be aware of wide variation in snowpack depth

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2014 4:00PM