Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 8th, 2017 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

garth lemke, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Marginal snow depth is barely covering ground features. Early season conditions exist.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Thursday will be 1900m freezing level, light SW winds, none to possibly light flurries snow, and some sun. No significant snow is forecast for a few days. Temperatures are warming Thursday particularly on SW aspects if the sun comes out.

Snowpack Summary

up to 2100m a spotty Oct 17 crust exists 10cm up from ground. It maybe lower elevations on N aspects. Oct 31 crust is 10cm down from surface above 2000m. Above 2000m 30cm plus is expected yet distribution varies with aspect, elevation, and wind exposure. Treeline, alpine gully features, and some lee alpine slopes will be wind loaded.

Avalanche Summary

Steep SW slopes along Medicine lake up to 2500m releasing with solar on Wednesday starting as point release to ground. Some point releases initiated 10-15cm wide 30cm deep thin slab lower down. This was enough snow to entrain in features making them up to size 2. Small avalanches over rocky terrain, cliffs, or in terrain traps would be serious.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Wind Slabs

This is an early winter avalanche problem that exists in isolated pockets where the snow has drifted into small wind slabs and the slope is steep enough to slide. Mainly a concern for ice climbers in steep gullies or walking above cliffs.

Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Dry

Avoid terrain traps or steep SW overhead terrain where sun could initiate an avalanche. Likely a short lived afternoon problem being days are short and sun is relatively weak.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 9th, 2017 4:00PM