Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Tuesday: Light to moderate snowfall continues. Moderate south-westerly winds. Freezing level around 500m.Wednesday: The next storm pulse arrives with moderate to heavy snow. Freezing level rising to 1000m. Strong south to south-westerly winds.Thursday: Heavy snow. Freezing level rising to 1500m. Strong south-westerly winds.

It's been an active week for avalanche activity and a natural cycle is expected to continue through the early part of the week. On Sunday, a size 3 step-down slab was triggered by a cornice on a north-west aspect, with a crown depth up to 1.5m. Explosives triggered several size 2 storm slabs on a variety of aspects. Many occurred on wind-loaded north-east to north-west aspects on Saturday. Two skier involvements were reported on north/north-west aspects at 2100m. Earlier in the week, snowmobilers remotely triggered avalanches from 200m below the fracture line. There was an avalanche fatality at Grizzly Lake on Powder Mountain on Tuesday involving a snowmobiler. The avalanche occurred on an east aspect near 2000m. The slab was 80cm-150cm thick and 525m wide and failed on the mid-February persistent weakness. An unnervingly large natural avalanche cycle occurred last weekend, with slabs up to size 4.5 propagating 2-3km along ridgelines and stepping down to the mid-February layer. Similar avalanches are possible as storm loading continues to overload deeper weaknesses this week.

Stormy conditions are creating ever-deeper wind slabs and storm slabs. Extreme winds are leading to the development of wind slabs unusually low on the slope and perhaps even in openings below treeline. Various old surfaces including crusts, moist snow, old wind slabs and old storm slabs sit below this. A key concern is the potential for a storm- or wind-slab to step down and trigger deeper weaknesses, formed in mid-February, which are still producing clean and fast shears in snowpack tests. Very large avalanches are possible, which could be remote-triggered, triggered mid-slope, and/or propagate into low-angled terrain.