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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 5th, 2014–Jan 6th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Winds becoming moderate Southwest overnight. High cloud with sunny periods in the morning becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. A layer of warm air that may be above freezing is expected to sit at alpine elevations until early Tuesday morning.Tuesday: Moderate Southwest winds and light precipitation with freezing levels dropping down to about 1000 metres near the coast and 500 metres inland.Wednesday: The next Pacific system is expected to move onto the coast. Models disagree on the timing and intensity of this next system.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Reports of surface hoar and near surface facets growing over the past few days. Suspect that the sun and warm alpine temps will destroy these crystals on solar aspects, but these crystals may stay around long enough on shaded aspects to get buried this week by the next storm. Northerly outflow winds have stripped north aspects and developed sastrugi waves in open terrain. Forecast Southerly winds may strip South aspects if the warming leaves any snow available for transport, or press recently deposited snow into stiffer wind slabs. Buried surface hoar and/or a thin rain crust have been reported buried down about 40 cm in the West and South of the region. There continues to be concern for weak basal facets in isolated shallow rocky snowpack areas. Forecast warm alpine temperatures may release weak cornices or loose moist snow from steep solar exposed aspects. Early season riding hazards such as rocks, stumps and logs are lurking below the surface in many areas. In glaciated terrain open and poorly bridged crevasses are everywhere.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Steep pockets of wind slab are expected to continue to be triggered by light additional loads in the alpine and at treeline. Wind slabs may be touchy where they are sitting above weak shallow facetted snowpacks.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Watch for areas with a shallow weak facetted snowpack below the recent storm snow. Stiff wind slabs may also be sitting above this type of weakness and step-down avalanches may be a concern in isolated areas.
Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Wet

Loose wet or moist snow may release naturally from steep solar aspects during periods of forecast warm air at alpine elevations.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2