Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2012–Jan 17th, 2012

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Check daily for updates, as the weather forecast is highly uncertain at present. Avalanche danger ratings are likely to change as we receive updated information.

Confidence

Poor - Track of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: 5-10cm snow. Strong westerly winds. Freezing level at valley floor.Wednesday/Thursday: Weather models show very different outcomes. Anything's possible - from dry conditions to moderate (locally heavy) snowfall, with strong westerly winds and a slight rise in temperature. Confidence is poor. Check in tomorrow for an update.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, numerous avalanches were triggered by skiers and explosives. A few small, skier-triggered avalanches were reported on Sunday. They all failed in, or at the base of, the storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Recent dry snow (10-30cm) fell with little wind and has not developed into a slab in most areas. However, this is likely to change quickly as the wind picks up again. Below this, older wind slabs are stubborn to trigger. A buried rain crust extends to about 1800m. Above this elevation, buried old surfaces include sastrugi and wind slab. Buried surface hoar is not a major concern in the upper snowpack as it is spotty in its distribution and may be isolated to a few sheltered drainages. Concern for lower snowpack layers has diminished and remains only in shallow snowpack areas. Facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack may still be a concern in shallow areas. Fragile cornices are still lurking.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New wind slabs are forming quickly. You'll find them on the down-wind side of ridges and terrain breaks.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Loose Dry

Loose dry snow can sluff easily in steep terrain. In the wrong terrain, it could knock you off your feet, or carry you into a terrain trap.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3