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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 10th, 2015–Feb 11th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

A rising freezing level will likely keep alpine danger ratings elevated through the week.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

An upper ridge will build over southern half of the province deflecting a series of incoming fronts to the north. Wednesday will see light precipitation starting overnight with a freezing level of between 1500 to 2000m. The rain will spread to the alpine on Thursday and Friday as freezing levels rise to 3000m. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south to southwest through the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity appears to have tapered off for now although small lose wet avalanches have been reported in steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

It's definitely not your typical early February coastal snowpack.  Last week’s pineapple express brought 30 to 100cm of snow above 2200m with heavy rains saturating the snowpack at lower elevation.  Cornices are reported to be looming at upper elevation.  Warm temperatures are now driving rapid settlement of the storm snow and the average depth of snow above the supportive early February rain crust is now around 70cm. Snowpack tests on both the mid storm instabilities and the February Crust are showing that these layers continue to strengthen.  The snow below 2000m is wet, and a saturated slush on crust setup can be found below treeline.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Soft storm slabs may become more sensitive to human triggering tomorrow as wind speed and freezing level increase.
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>Slopes receiving direct sun for the first time since the storm could produce natural avalanches.>The new snow will likely require a bit more time to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches should be most problematic at elevations below the freezing level where precipitation falls as rain.
Be very cautious with gully features.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2