Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations

A broad upper trough remains just offshore while a cooler, unstable onshore flow will persist and strengthen through Monday. On Tuesday an embedded frontal system will bring heavy amounts of precipitation, rising freezing levels and strong SW winds hammering the region. Wednesday the flow will switch from SW to NW, and precipitation amounts will ease up.Monday: Fzlvl’s 1000 m, snow amounts 5-10 cm, ridgetop winds S 30, alpine temps -4.Tuesday: Fzlvl’s 1700 m in am falling to 700 m, snow amounts 15-30 cm, ridgetop winds SW 30-gusting to 70 km/hr, alpine temps -3.Wednesday: Fzlv l’s 700 m, snow amounts 5-10 cm, ridgetop winds SW 20 km/hr, alpine temps -8.

On Sunday widespread natural avalanche activity was reported size 1.0-2.0. On Saturday a size 1.5 skier triggered avalanche occurred below treeline, running on a crust in a specific terrain feature. Explosive testing done produced several size 1-2 slab avalanches, initiating within the storm slab instabilities. Wider propagations have been seen from convex terrain, remote triggering is likely.

The Sea to Sky Region has seen anywhere from 90-140 cm of storm snow over the past 4 days. Storm slabs and fresh wind slabs continue to build, and natural avalanche activity has been widespread. I suspect the old weak snow surfaces (thin sun crusts, SH, surface facets) that developed early last week have been cleaned out in most places.  Below this, the mid-pack seems to be fairly settled, strong and possibly bridging instabilities that may exist deeper. Under the mid-pack (90-150 cm down) sits the early November facet/ crust persistent weakness. Recent snowpack testing done on an East aspect @ 2000 m have shown hard results with sudden collapse characteristics. Because this weakness is so close to the ground in most areas, any associated avalanche activity will likely be limited to slopes with smooth ground cover (e.g. scree slopes, rock slabs, summer firn, glaciers, etc.). Areas that are most susceptible to trigger this deep persistent weakness are shallow, thin and variable snowpack deposition spots. The continuous loading pattern should provide direct testing on the early November facet/crust weakness.