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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2021–Jan 12th, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

The region is primed and overdue for a significant avalanche cycle.

New snowfall and strong SW winds forecast for the next two days. Be extra cautious, especially in open areas though-out the region.

Weather Forecast

A strong, moisture laced, southwest flow continues to provide steady snowfall in the Jasper forecast region, especially in the Columbia Icefields. Strong SW winds continue to build reactive wind-slabs on N through E aspects. Forecasts calling for a further 15cm for Tuesday, and 17cm Wednesday. Temps steady between -12 and -8, warming up by Weds. 

Snowpack Summary

Strong SW winds have been aggressively distributing surface snow on N through E aspects, at all elevations but especially in the alpine and open tree-line. The mid-pack is supportive except in shallow locations and regions like the Maligne range. The bottom is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed or reported.

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Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Ongoing Strong to Extreme SW winds continue to form wind slabs at treeline and above. They appear to be stubborn with only a few natural avalanches observed but, be vigilant as likelihood of human triggering is rising with new precipitation.

  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created reactive slabs.
  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Use caution around thin to thick areas where buried deeper weak layers could be triggered. The surface hoar layer down 40-70cm seems unreactive and spotty distribution but keep it on your radar.

  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 3