Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 7th, 2020 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable.

Avalanche Canada mconlan, Avalanche Canada

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Sea To Sky.

Clearing skies may lure you into bigger terrain, but this is not the time to expose yourself. The recent snow may remain touchy and it has loaded a weak snowpack in parts of the region. The snowpack will need time to stabilize.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level 1500 m dropping to 500 m by the morning.

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -11 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

THURSDAY: Clear skies, light north wind, alpine temperature -10 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 25 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs were reactive to explosives on Monday, with large (size 2) avalanches being released. It is likely that a natural avalanche cycle occurred on Monday during the peak of the storm. It is possible that avalanches released on the weak snowpack base but we may need to wait for clearer conditions on Tuesday to see what the storm did.

Snowpack Summary

Over 50 cm of snow accumulated in the region on Monday above 1500 m and another 10 to 20 cm is expected to fall Monday night. The snow fell with strong south to southwest wind, forming touchy storm slabs above 1500 m. The snow may be loading a touchy weak layer of feathery surface hoar buried around 100 to 150 cm.

In parts of the region near the bottom of the snowpack around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains and a hard melt-freeze crust exist from mid-November. This is is an indicative snowpack setup for large and destructive avalanches. The likelihood of human-triggered avalanches decreases as the layer gets deeper but the consequence of triggering it would be severe.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Valid until: Jan 8th, 2020 5:00PM

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