Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 24th, 2019 3:39PM

The alpine rating is low, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

Although temperatures have cooled slightly, human triggered loose wet avalanches remain a concern on Monday, especially at lower elevations where the snowpack remains weak, warm and mushy.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool(ish), at least through Wednesday morning.SUNDAY NIGHT: A gentle breeze, freezing level lowering to around 1000 m, trace of snow possible.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light to moderate southeast wind, freezing level holding around 1800 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 1200 m Monday night with 2 to 10 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower/mid elevations and should produce a trace to 15 cm of snow at upper elevations. TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level holding around 1500 m, 2 to 10 cm of snow possible.WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, light southeast wind, freezing level rising to about 1900 m, no significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

In the far north of the region on Friday and Saturday loose wet avalanche activity up to size 2 was reported on solar aspects. Sporadic natural slab avalanches were also reported in the alpine and treeline, but no activity was reported from north aspects. No new activity was reported from the central or southern portions of the region.

Snowpack Summary

The current snow surface is quite variable. On higher north aspects above 2000 m you may find some dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds which may have formed isolated old wind slabs. We're looking at a good overnight refreeze on Sunday night, so most surfaces should have a supportive surface crust Monday morning. There are still a handful of melt/freeze crusts, surface hoar and facets in the upper snowpack including the February facet interface which is down 20 to 60 cm below the surface, but all of these layers appear to have gone dormant for the time being. The snowpack at mid and upper elevations is expected to continue to gain strength as we enter a period of consecutive nights with below freezing temperatures.

Problems

Loose Wet

After a week of warmth we're entering a cooler period which should curtail natural avalanche activity. It may be possible to trigger slow moving yet powerful loose avalanches at mid and lower elevations where snow remains wet, weak, warm and mushy.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating, travel early on exposed slopes.Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Mar 25th, 2019 2:00PM