Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

The big story for the next few days is the freezing level which should be on the rise throughout the period. Wednesday: Freezing level around 1800m, no precipitation, Light variable winds at all elevations. Thursday: Freezing level starts near 1800m, rising to around 2500m by the afternoon. Winds light at treeline, strong west at upper elevations. No precipitation. Friday: Freezing should be hovering around 3000m all day. Light winds at treeline, moderate SW winds at ridgetop. No precipitation.

Observations have been essentially non-existent in recent days. This likely speaks more to a lack of observers rather than actual conditions. I'm confident recent storm loading has produced large storm slab avalanches at higher elevations, while loose wet or wet slab avalanche activity occurred at lower elevations where rain fell.

Since February 5th, moderate to heavy precipitation fell throughout the region. The rain line during the storms generally hovered around 1700m, although there were periods where rain fell into the alpine. In the alpine, heavy accumulations of moist, dense snow have been pushed by strong southwest winds into much deeper deposits in upper elevation lee terrain. The recent storm snow overlies a hard crust layer (which may have overlying surface hoar) which was formed in late January. At lower elevations, continuous rain has saturated the snowpack. I suspect cornices are large and fragile.In the mid to lower snowpack, you may find the mid-December crust/facet/surface hoar combo. At lower elevations rain has likely destroyed what was left of this layer. At higher elevations recent storm loading may have produced very large avalanches at this interface, although observations have been extremely limited.