Avalanche Forecast

Good

Monday is the tail end of the beautiful weather pattern we've been in for the past few days. The upper flow switches from northerly to a more mild southerly on Tuesday which will push freezing levels above 3000 m. Monday: Freezing level starts near the surface, topping out around 2000m. A few clouds build into the region in the afternoon. The current forecast shows that Monday night is the last good overnight refreeze until next weekend. Tuesday: Temperatures should already be near 2000 m at dawn and are forecasted to continue to climb to 3000 m by lunch time. Cloud cover increases to 50% as winds blow at light values out of the east below treeline. At ridge top expect moderate southeasterlies. Temps remain high through the night. Wednesday: Freezing level stays around 3000 all day. Ridge top winds moderate SE diminishing in speed at lower elevations.

Last week's storm snow is now fairly well settled which has scaled avalanche activity way back. The only avalanche activity reported Saturday was from a high elevation NW facing slope that failed naturally producing a size 2.5 avalanche.

Mild temperatures continue to drive rapid settlement of last week's storm snow. A sun crust is in place on slopes that face SW, S & SE. Dry snow can be found on due north facing slopes down to around 1400m. Around 30 cm of snow fell Wednesday accompanied by moderate southwest winds which brings total snowfall since March 26th to 120 cm. This snow rests on a suncrust on solar aspects and a melt freeze crust on non solar aspects below 2000m. The March 26 interface consists of a melt/freeze crust down around 100cm, on all aspects except true north treeline and alpine, where small surface hoar (5mm) is present in sheltered places. The bond at this interface is gaining strength, with lingering concerns on true south aspects where the crust is thickest and where the surface hoar lurks. At lower elevations, the consistent high freezing levels have kept the new snow heavy and moist. The persistent early February surface hoar lingers deep in the snowpack and may once again become a player mid-week when the region goes several days without a good overnight refreeze or recovery. Concern remains with heavy triggers (cornice), step down avalanches and rapid loading from intense precipitation, strong winds or sun.