Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Saturday: Clear skies / light to moderate southwest winds / freezing level at 2300m Sunday: Mostly clear / strong southwesterly winds / freezing level at about 3300m Monday: mostly clear / strong southwest winds / freezing level at about 3200m

No new avalanches have been reported from the region. This may speak more to the number of professional observers at this time rather than actual conditions. I would expect human and naturally triggered wind slab avalanches in the wake of Thursday's storm, with ongoing activity resulting from warming and solar input forecast for Saturday.

Significant windslabs that formed Thursday night now overlie light amounts of temperature-affected snow that fell over the last week. Below this, spring weather has left us with wet grains or melt-freeze crusts at treeline and above while rain has continued to penetrate and weaken the isothermal snowpack at lower elevations. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 140-220 cm. The likelihood of avalanches failing on this layer has been very low due to cooler temperatures, however it may wake up with warming and the consequence continues to be very large destructive avalanches. Cornices in the region are very large and have may become weak with spring temperatures.