Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

TONIGHT: Light flurries. Accumulation 2-8 cm. Ridge moderate, west. Temperature -10. Freezing level lowering to valley bottom.FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light flurries. Accumulation 2-8 cm. Ridge wind moderate, west. Temperature -5. Freezing level valley bottom.SATURDAY: Cloudy, flurries. Accumulation 2-5 cm. Ridge wind light, southwest. Temperature -5. Freezing level valley bottom.SUNDAY: Flurries. Accumulation 5-10 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature -2. Freezing level 500 m.

On Thursday and Wednesday, numerous natural, skier and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches up to Size 3 were reported with crowns from 20-80 cm deep, and propagations from 20 up to 150 m wide. These results were from predominantly north to east aspects between 1600-2000 m and ran long distances. On Tuesday widespread sloughing and and several storm slabs up to Size 1 were observed in steep terrain. Also a Size 2 was triggered from 50 m away by a snow machine on a northeast aspect at 2050 m. The crown was 120 cm deep and is suspected to have failed on the mid-December weak layer.Reports from Monday included seven deep persistent slabs that were released with small explosives in the alpine in the Fernie area. Sizes ranged from 2.5-3, crown depths averaged about 200 cm and all results indicated the deeply buried late-November crust as the failure plane. These results demonstrate the need for ongoing vigilance with regard to overhead hazards and the ongoing potential for deep, destructive avalanches to occur.

About 60-80 cm of storm snow now covers a layer of surface hoar on sheltered aspects (especially prominent from 1400-1900 m) as well as sun crust on solar aspects that was buried mid-January. Beneath the mid-January interface lie a number of very concerning buried weak layers. A layer of surface hoar from early-January is buried 90-110 cm below the surface. A weak layer buried mid-December (predominantly surface hoar and/or a sun crust) is around 120-160 cm below the surface at treeline and below treeline elevations. A rain crust with sugary facets that developed late-November is near the bottom of the snowpack. All of these layers have produced recent large, destructive avalanches and remain a concern.