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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2014–Jan 16th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Jasper.

Highway 93N will be closed for avalanche control from Saskatchewan River Crossing to Poboktan Creek for Thursday Jan. 16th from 6am to 4pm. No climbing or skiing is permitted within the closure area.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures forecasted to reach above seasonal expectations by midday Thursday. The high pressure and periodic glorious sunshine is forecasted to remain into the weekend and through next week.

Snowpack Summary

Warmer temperatures at TL and below are promoting settlement in the snowpack. Recent new snow has been redistributed by strong SW winds creating wind slab in open areas at all elevations.  This sits over a supportive mid-pack at higher elevations. There is a weaker overall snowpack BLT and at all elevations this is on top of weak basal facets.

Avalanche Summary

Natural cycle continues in the forecast area with numerous slab avalanches reported today on all aspects in the elevation range of 1900 to 2600m. Of particular note is a size 3 on Kitchener Shoulder, SE aspect at 2400ms running to ground.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Depending on elevation, this layer is either bridged by a hard mid-pack at higher elevations and likely to be triggered from a shallow area. At the lower elevations there is minimal support in the snowpack and is easier to trigger.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Triggering this layer could potentially initiate deeper instabilities. 
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3