Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2014 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Highway 93N will be closed for avalanche control from Saskatchewan River Crossing to Poboktan Creek for Thursday Jan. 16th from 6am to 4pm. No climbing or skiing is permitted within the closure area.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Temperatures forecasted to reach above seasonal expectations by midday Thursday. The high pressure and periodic glorious sunshine is forecasted to remain into the weekend and through next week.

Snowpack Summary

Warmer temperatures at TL and below are promoting settlement in the snowpack. Recent new snow has been redistributed by strong SW winds creating wind slab in open areas at all elevations. This sits over a supportive mid-pack at higher elevations. There is a weaker overall snowpack BLT and at all elevations this is on top of weak basal facets.

Avalanche Summary

Natural cycle continues in the forecast area with numerous slab avalanches reported today on all aspects in the elevation range of 1900 to 2600m. Of particular note is a size 3 on Kitchener Shoulder, SE aspect at 2400ms running to ground.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Depending on elevation, this layer is either bridged by a hard mid-pack at higher elevations and likely to be triggered from a shallow area. At the lower elevations there is minimal support in the snowpack and is easier to trigger.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Triggering this layer could potentially initiate deeper instabilities.

Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2014 4:00PM